The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The economic consequences of leaving the EU will depend on what policies the UK adopts following Brexit. But lower trade due to reduced integration with EU countries is likely to cost the UK economy far more than is gained from lower contributions to the EU budget

How do ‘Economists for Brexit’ manage to defy the laws of gravity?

Their forecast of income gains from Brexit contrasts with all other economic analysis, write Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reene

Did the Treasury get it right? Putting a figure on the cost of a Brexit

The Treasury has released a report which analyses the economic impact of leaving the EU and estimates that it could lead to a 6.2% fall in GDP (£4,300 per household). In a briefing paper for the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John van Reenen analyse the report and conclude it is a serious contribution to the debate. Their major criticism is that the Treasury have been overly cautious in their assumptions for their central case (a negotiated bilateral agreement, like the Canadian trade deal) and the true long-run costs of a Brexit are likely to be higher than they estimate. In this extract, they address some of the criticisms made of the Treasury’s analysis

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

EU immigration hasn't impacted employment or wages for the British people, write Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reene

Immigration from the EU is not a ‘necessary evil’ and does not drag down wages

A major argument of the campaign to leave the EU is that Brexit would give the UK more control over the flow of immigrants from across Europe, who have supposedly hurt the jobs and pay of British workers. Research by Jonathan Wadsworth, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John van Reenen shows that far from EU immigration being a ‘necessary evil’ to gain access to the greater trade and foreign investment that comes from being in the EU Single Market, immigration is at worst neutral and at best, an economic benefit of EU membership

The cost of Brexit to trade? At least £850 per household, per year

In this extract from the LSE Centre for Economic Performance’s second briefing paper on Brexit, (left to right) Swati Dhingra, John van Reenen, Thomas Sampson and Gianmarco Ottaviano conclude that – in the most optimistic scenario – UK income would drop by 1.3% (or £850 per household each year) if we left the EU. In a more pessimistic scenario, the drop would be 2.6%; it could even be up to 9.6%

How Brexit will reduce foreign investment in the UK….and why it matters

Leaving the EU could lead to a fall in inward foreign direct investment of close to a quarter, writes a CEP tea

Less trade and lower living standards in the UK: the price of Brexit

Those who say that leaving the EU is a win-win aren't being candid about the evidence, write Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reene

Incomplete Contracts and the Internal Organization of Firms

We survey the theoretical and empirical literature on decentralization within firms. We first discuss how the concept of incomplete contracts shapes our views about the organization of decision-making. We then overview the empirical evidence on the determinants of decentralization and on the effects of decentralization on firm performance. A number of factors highlighted in the theory are shown to be important in accounting for delegation, such as heterogeneity and congruence of preferences as proxied by trust. Empirically, competition, human capital, and IT also appear to foster decentralization. There are substantial gaps between theoretical and empirical work and we suggest avenues for future research in bridging this gapEconomic